A new technology foresight model and its application in Turkish defense industry for aerospace communication technologies of 2040

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Tezin Türü: Doktora

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2018

Öğrenci: NURDAN YÜKSEL

Danışman: SERHAT ÇAKIR

Özet:

A new technology foresight model -Foresight Periscope Model (FPM)- and Foresight Functional Framework (FFF) with its catchy acronym FORESIGHT of which each letter corresponds to the functions of foresight developed by the researcher are used as a base with the integration of Foresight Method Selection Algorithm (FMSA) developed within this dissertation. The application of integrated model is implemented for aerospace communication technologies’ foresight in Turkish Defense Industry for 2040. Three segments of FPM -resources, methodology and futures’ strategies- are evaluated by FMSA which is coherent with the functions in FFF. All suggested core and supportive methods given as the outputs of FMSA are conducted and analyzed for the stated technical subject within this dissertation. Suggested participative methods like expert panels with their sub-methods and Delphi technique are realized to build different future scenarios. The outcomes of methods’ analysis are set forth with charts and graphs in technical details with the comments of the researcher. The scenario is determined by the methods’ results for the preferred future. The strategy including the policy recommendations is established for the preferred scenario and of which actions are shown on the roadmap prepared for 2040 for the aerospace communication technologies in Turkish Defense Industry.