Probabilistic modeling of failure in rock slopes

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Maden Mühendisliği Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2007

Öğrenci: MOHAMED MOHİELDİN FADLELMULA FADLELSEED

Danışman: CELAL KARPUZ

Özet:

This study presents the results of probabilistic modeling of plane and wedge types of slope failures, based on the ”Advance First Order Second Moment (AFOSM)” reliability method. In both of those failure types, two different failure criteria namely, Coulomb linear and Barton Bandis non-linear failure criteria are utilized in the development of the probabilistic models. Due to the iterative nature of the AFOSM method, analyzing spreadsheets have been developed in order to carry out the computations. The developed spreadsheets are called “Plane Slope Analyzer (PSA)” and “Wedge Slope Analyzer (WSA)”. The developed probabilistic models and their spreadsheets are verified by investigating the affect of rock and slope parameters such as, ground water level, slope height, cohesion, friction angle, and joint wall compressive strength (JCS) and their distribution types on the reliability index (β), and probability of slope failure (PF). In this study, different probability distributions are used and the inverse transformation formulas of their non-normal variates to their equivalent normal ones are developed as well. In addition, the wedge failure case is also modeled by using system reliability approach and then the results of conventional probability of failure and the system reliability approach are compared.