Statistical analysis of electricity energy consumption with respect to provinces in Turkey

---

Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi, İstatistik Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2014

Öğrenci: MEHMET ÇAKMAK

Eş Danışman: CEYLAN YOZGATLIGİL, ÖZLEM İLK DAĞ

Özet:

In recent years, the economic developments in Turkey, rapid increase in population and industrialization and such factors have led to an increment in the demand for electricity in Turkey. Therefore; the accurate estimation of electricity consumption will be important in determining the country's energy strategy. The purpose of this study is to forecast the future electricity energy consumption by acquiring the most consistent and accurate forecast models of the provinces in Turkey by using the fixed effects, random effects and dynamic panel data analysis methods with electricity consumption values of provinces of Turkey between the years of 1999-2011. Forecasting results suggest that the random effects panel data analysis is the best forecasting model among three methods providing the most accurate results.