Stochastic modelling of wind energy generation

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Elektrik ve Elektronik Mühendisliği Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2012

Öğrenci: İBRAHİM ALİŞAR

Danışman: OSMAN SEVAİOĞLU

Özet:

In this thesis work, electricty generation modeling of the wind energy -one type of the renewable energy sources- is studied. The wind energy characteristics and the distribution of wind speed in a specific region is also examined. In addition, the power curves of the wind turbines are introduced and the relationship between the wind speed and wind power is explained. The generation characteristics of the wind turbines from various types of producers are also investigated. In this study, the main wind power forecasting methods are presented and the advantages and disadvantages of the methods are analyzed. The physical approaches, statistical methods and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods are introduced. The parameters that affect the capacity factor, the total energy generation and the payback period are examined. In addition, the wind turbine models and their effect on the total energy generation with different wind data from various sites are explained. As a part of this study, a MATLAB-based software about wind speed and energy modelling and payback period calculation has been developed. In order to simplify the calculation process, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) has been designed. In addition, a simple wind energy persistence model for wind power plant operator in the intra-day market has been developed.