Single shot hit probability computation for air defense based on error analysis

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2007

Öğrenci: İNCİ YÜKSEL

Danışman: NUR EVİN ÖZDEMİREL

Özet:

In this thesis, an error analysis based method is proposed to calculate single shot hit probability (PSSH) values of a fire control system. The proposed method considers that a weapon and a threat are located in three dimensional space. They may or may not have relative motion in three dimensions with respect to each other. The method accounts for the changes in environmental conditions. It is applicable in modeling and simulation as well as in top down design of a fire control system to reduce the design cost. The proposed method is applied to a specific fire control system and it is observed that PSSH values highly depend on the distance between the weapon and the threat, hence they are time varying. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model various defense scenarios in order to evaluate a heuristic developed by Gülez (2007) for weapon-threat assignment and scheduling of weapons’ shots. The heuristic uses the proposed method for PSSH and time of flight computation. It is observed that the difference between the results of simulation and heuristic depends on the scenario used.