Tsunami risk assessment using GIS-based multi criteria decision analysis at Bakırköy, İstanbul

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2016

Öğrenci: DUYGU TÜFEKÇİ

Eş Danışman: MEHMET LÜTFİ SÜZEN, AHMET CEVDET YALÇINER

Özet:

Northern coast of the Sea of Marmara hosts many of coastal facilities. Bakırköy is one of the most critical coastal districts of İstanbul with the importance of air and marine transportation. There are many other coastal facilities and structures in Bakırköy district such as marinas, small scaled craft harbors, water front roads and business centers that are prone to suffer from the marine disasters. In the history, the Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquakes and associated tsunamis. Therefore, risk assessment is essential for Bakırköy district, as well as for other parts of İstanbul. In this study, a new methodology for tsunami risk assessment is further developed and applied to Bakırköy district of İstanbul. For determination of the worst case hazard scenario, simulations are performed on the tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. Human vulnerability assessments are realized by using GIS-based Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Among MCDA methods, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is selected. Vulnerability at location and evacuation resilience are the main elements in the hierarchical structure of AHP. Hazard and human vulnerability assessments are integrated to obtain the tsunami risk assessments for Bakırköy district. In the risk relation, the preparedness and awareness level of the community is also considered. The hazard, vulnerability and risk assessments are also evaluated according to the neighborhoods of Bakırköy district and the population. The tsunami simulations revealed that the maximum inundation distance is over 350 m on land and water penetrates almost 1700 m along Ayamama Stream. Inundation is observed in eleven neighborhoods of Bakırköy district. In the inundation zone, maximum flow depth is found to be over 5.7 meters. The inundated area forms 4.2% of whole Bakırköy district and 62 buildings are located in the inundation zone. According to the human vulnerability assessment, Sakızağacı and Ataköy 2-5-6 are the locationally most vulnerable neighborhoods while Yenimahalle is the one where the evacuation is most resilient. The risk assessments showed that the Ataköy 2-5-6 neighborhood is the one where the risk is very high and it is followed by Sakızağacı neighborhood.