Stokastik ve stokastik olmayan varyans modellerinin analizi.

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi, İstatistik Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2004

Tezin Dili: İngilizce

Öğrenci: Pelin Özkan

Danışman: HÜSEYİN ÖZTAŞ AYHAN

Özet:

Changing in variance or volatility with time can be modeled as deterministic by using autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) type models, or as stochastic by using stochastic volatility (SV) models. This study compares these two kinds of models which are estimated on Turkish / USA exchange rate data. First, a GARCH(1,1) model is fitted to the data by using the package E-views and then a Bayesian estimation procedure is used for estimating an appropriate SV model with the help of Ox code. In order to compare these models, the LR test statistic calculated for non-nested hypotheses is obtained.