Quantification of the uncertainties in shale gas reservoirs, a case study for Dadas shale formation

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Petrol ve Doğal Gaz Mühendisliği Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2013

Öğrenci: GÖRKEM YUSUF TOPÇU

Danışman: SERHAT AKIN

Özet:

In the world of a decreasing conventional oil and gas resources and high energy prices, the unconventional gas resources has become a new focus of interest of the oil and gas industry. Especially, after the American shale gas revolution, both the industry and the economies are trying to explore and exploit their potential resources. Also, Turkey is one of the lucky countries that are known to have important shale gas resources at subsurface. Up to date, Dadas shale formation in the Southeastern Anatolian basin is regarded as the most promising one among the country. Although, the exact amount and reservoir charactersictics are not determined due to the lack of sufficient engineering and reservoir data, the exploration activities are continuing to get tangible information. While the first wells are being drilled in the field within the scope of the development plan, this study sets out to estimate the gas reserves in the Dadas shale formation by quantification of the uncertainties by using some probabilistic approaches and discuss the economic viability of the field. The estimation of Original Gas İn Place (OGIP) as 88,6 Tcf, Recovery Factor (RF) as 15%, Technically Recoverable Resources (TRR) as 13,3 Tcf, the optimum well number of 5189 wells and the well spacing of 233 acres/wells are illustrated. The Net Present Value (NPV) and the Internal Rate of Return of two different field development plans are projected and compared. The first one has a drilling program in the first 10 years of the project with a 25 years’ life cycle and the other one has a drilling program in the first 25 years of the project with a 40 years’ life cycle.