Ground motion simulations based on regional input parameters and their impact on insurance premiums: Bursa case

---

Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Uygulamalı Matematik Enstitüsü, Aktüerya Bilimleri Anabilim Dalı, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2015

Öğrenci: BARIŞ ÜNAL

Eş Danışman: SEVTAP AYŞE KESTEL, AYŞEGÜL ASKAN GÜNDOĞAN

Özet:

Determination of earthquake parameters are required for earthquake resistant design and retrofitting of exsisting structures. There are not many options to obtain earthquake data for regions with no or sparce earthquake recordings. Even though some methods are aplicable to these regions they generate only peak ground motion parameters. For cases that require the full ground motion simulations are necessary. Simulations can also be used for gaining knowledge about source, path and site effects. In this study, potential earthquakes in Bursa are simulated based on stochastic finite-fault simulation with dynamic corner frequency model. To ensure simulations with reliable synthetic ground motion output, input parameters are derived from regional data. Major previous events in the region are verified by comparing the records with the corresponding synthetics. Simulation model is aslo compared with regional and global ground motion prediction equations. Potential earthquake scenario event for Bursa is simulated. Spatial distribution of peak ground motion parameters and time histories at selected locations are obtained. From these parameters Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) are obtained. These MMIs are used as a input parameter in damage probability matrixes (DPM). From DPMs Central Damage Ratios(CDR) are obtained. From the previous seismic hazard studies in the region return period of the scenario earthquake is obtained. Insurance rates are determined based on scenario events probability and expected CDR.