Impacts of mega projects on the resilience of Istanbul city-region

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Tezin Türü: Doktora

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2018

Öğrenci: MELİH GÜRÇAY

Danışman: AYDA ERAYDIN

Özet:

Impacts of Mega Projects (3rd Bosporus Bridge and Northern Marmara Motorway Project, 3rd Airport Project, Canal Istanbul Project and New Istanbul Project) on the resilience of Istanbul City-Region was investigated in this research. For this reason, an exclusive resilience assessment framework was developed for Istanbul City-Region case. Through this framework, a conceptual model of the system was developed. Therefore, the focal system was described in terms of its boundaries, main issues and key components, first. In this context, key resources of the system were determined with possible disturbances on them. Then, a historical profile of the system was developed with various scales and domains in order to determine the thresholds of the system with their interactions. After determining the trends of change in the system, five scenario alternatives were developed for analysing the impacts of Mega Projects on the resilience of the system. These scenario alternatives were simulated through SLEUTH cellular automaton model for the year of 2050. Following the predictions of urban growth for Istanbul City-Region the possible impacts of the Mega Projects on the system’s resilience were analysed in terms of the loss of natural resources.