Discrete-time stochastic analysis of land combat

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2004

Öğrenci: UĞUR ELİİYİ

Danışman: NUR EVİN ÖZDEMİREL

Özet:

In this study, we present the implementation and experimental analysis of a modeling approach for analyzing tactical level land combat to generate information for weapon and ammunition planning. The discrete-time stochastic model (DSM), which can handle small and moderately large force levels, is based on single shot kill probabilities. Forces are assumed to be heterogeneous on both sides, and both directed and area fire types are modeled by means of combinatorial analysis. DSM considers overkills and can handle noncombat loss and engagement processes, discrete reinforcements, force combinations and divisions. In addition to experimenting with DSM, we estimate attrition rate coefficients used in Lanchester combat models, such that the two models will yield similar figures for force levels throughout the combat.