Inflation targeting and fiscal dominance: Evidence from Turkey

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2007

Öğrenci: TUĞBA SEL

Danışman: ERDAL ÖZMEN

Özet:

This study investigates the significance of fiscal dominance for an inflation targeting regime in the context of the recent Turkish experience. To this end, capital flows and country risk equations are estimated for the Turkish monthly data pertaining the inflation targeting regime implementation period. The results from the capital flows models based on portfolio approach strongly suggest that the real effective exchange rates in Turkey during the period are determined by foreign interest rates and the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) but not by the domestic interest rates in the long run. This supports the view that the risk premium channel dominates the standard portfolio channel in the determination of real exchange rates in Turkey during the period. The country risk of Turkey, proxied by the EMBI spread in the long run is determined by risk appetite of foreign investors and domestic variables including real debt stock, real consolidated budget balance, international gross reserves, current account deficits and credit ratings. All these results are found to be important manifestations of the presence fiscal dominance in Turkey. Consequently, contrary to the postulations of the conventional monetary policy transmission mechanism, interest rate increases to cope with inflationary pressures may lead to an inflation acceleration, rather than the reverse.