The estimation of adopted mortality and morbidity rates using Markov model and phase type law: Turkish case

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Uygulamalı Matematik Enstitüsü, Aktüerya Bilimleri Anabilim Dalı, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2015

Öğrenci: FULYA AKAT

Danışman: SEVTAP AYŞE KESTEL

Özet:

Mortality estimation has an important role in determining future population structures and making economical decisions. However, mortality measures do not provide sufficient information about populations. Because of this reason, morbidity estimation of chronic diseases and disabilities has become more important. In this study, firstly Turkish Mortality Tables, such as TRSH 2010, TRH 2010 and SGK 2008, and CSO1980 are adopted to Markov Model to determine mortality rates with respect to phase type distribution for the purpose of justifying if these tables represent the Turkish population structure well. After that, ischemic heart disease (IHD), which is the most fatal illness in the Western countries, mortality and morbidity rates are found and analysed by utilizing the same approach. Using one absorbing state, Markov Model gives the opportunity of calculating time until absorbing by phase type distribution. We determine the time until absorbing of diseases and the time until death by this distribution. Moreover, e factor in the phase type distribution is calculated. By the help of this factor, new risk factors can be applied to the model by modification.