Business cycles in emerging economies

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Tezin Türü: Doktora

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2011

Öğrenci: FATMA PINAR ERDEM

Danışman: ERDAL ÖZMEN

Özet:

Until very recently, most emerging market economies have achieved higher growth rates for the last decade. It is controversial whether this good economic environment is due to domestic reforms or due to favorable external factors. In this framework, the main aim of this study is to investigate the structure and sources of business cycles in emerging market economies and to determine how these cycles differ than those in developed countries. The role of external and domestic factors on business cycles are analyzed by applying not only the conventional panel data estimations but also common correlated effects panel mean group method which is introduced by Peseran (2006). Besides, the convergence of business cycles in emerging market economies to the business cycles in developed countries is discussed based on factor analysis. The major results indicate the common global factors are the leading source of the business cycles both in emerging market economies and developed countries. However, domestic determinants of fluctuations differ across two groups of countries. In addition, results show that in the last two decades fluctuations in emerging market economies have started to be more dependent on the fluctuations in developed countries.