Sudden stops and the adjustment of real exchange rates to current account deficits

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2008

Öğrenci: ÖZGE DOĞANAY YAŞAR

Danışman: ERDAL ÖZMEN

Özet:

This study aims to analyze the causes and consequences of sudden stops in international capital flows with special reference to the recent Turkish experience. We aim to investigate also the vulnerability of the Turkish economy to a sudden stop and compute the required change in the real exchange rates for a current account adjustment in the face of a sudden stop. The assessment of the economic and structural indicators, which are assumed to be related with the resilience of the economy against sudden stops, such as openness and dollarization, refers that the risk of experiencing a sudden stop has increased in Turkey in the last two years, despite a decrease in its exposure to the destructive effects of such shocks thanks to the structural improvements in the economy. Our empirical results based on a small open economy model with tradables and non-tradables suggest that a sudden stop that requires the closing of the current account imbalance in Turkey would necessitate a real depreciation of around 36 percent as of May 2008 under the assumption that international reserves were not used in order to mitigate the level and the effects of the adjustment. Although the effects of such a real depreciation may be milder due to the decreased currency mismatches in the public and banking sector, there is still the risk of experiencing a financial crisis following a sudden stop because of the high liability dollarization in the real sector.