Statistical modeling of hourly electricity load series in Turkey

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2013

Öğrenci: PINAR ÖZPALA

Danışman: ESMA GAYGISIZ LAJUNEN

Özet:

This study investigates Heterogeneous Double Seasonal ARIMA model, Heterogeneous Periodic AR model and a nonlinear model of Multiple Regime Logistic STAR model by application of hourly electricity load data between years 2006-2007 in Turkey. Forecast results suggest that Heterogeneous Double Seasonal ARIMA model is the best among three methods forecasting up to one day.