Modeling truck traffic in Turkey

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2015

Öğrenci: MUHAMMAD FAYYAZ

Danışman: HEDİYE TÜYDEŞ YAMAN

Özet:

The objective of this study is to contribute to intercity road freight modeling in Turkey in general, and particularly estimation of origin-destination (O-D) matrix for intercity truck traffic, using the available freight transport data. As commodity flow data is not available for Turkey, information collected through roadside axle surveys is the main data source of this study. Firstly, the survey matrix has been estimated using roadside axle survey data from 2007-2011 period, and enlarged using link counts at the survey locations, which consequently. The data is used to estimate the observed produced and attracted (PA) trips for 81 provinces of Turkey. In trip generation, regression analysis is employed to derive truck trip production and attraction functions for 2011 using socioeconomic data (number of household, port existence and land square). Trip distribution is performed and the gravity model coefficients in the log-form are estimated regressing the data from 3959 available O-D flows in the survey data. Very low regression statistics for both distance and travel time based impedance functions and underestimation of truck traffic with the obtained models suggested that truck traffic distribution is controlled by parameters other than these two. Though underestimated, missing 2521 O-D flows are estimated using the developed gravity model, which suggested 11% additional trips (which may be even more in reality). All the regression and statistical evaluations are performed in SPSS.