Yurtiçi kredi büyümesi, sermaye girişleri ve cari işlemler dengesindeki bozulmalar : ampirik analizler, Brezilya ve Türkiye

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2012

Tezin Dili: İngilizce

Öğrenci: Yasemin Yaman

Danışman: ESMA GAYGISIZ LAJUNEN

Özet:

This thesis analyzes the interactions between domestic credit expansion, capital inflows and current account imbalances in a framework of empirical models carried out for Brazil and Turkey. In this context, three vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified covering the time period between January 2002 and March 2012 for Brazil and 2003 January and 2012 March for Turkey. Real effective exchange rate (REER) and relative yield spreads formed with country specific Embi + indexes are also included in the estimations of the models. The analyses of the models show that capital inflows in these countries trigger the domestic credit expansion which create an upward pressure on import demands and affect current account balances negatively. The results support the implementation of domestic credit tightening policies to reduce the current account imbalances in these countries.