The sustainability analysis of Turkish domestic debt

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2009

Öğrenci: FEYZA ALKAN

Danışman: NADİR ÖCAL

Özet:

In this thesis, sustainability of the Turkish domestic debt is analyzed within the “sustainability indicators” perspective. The fiscal targets of Maastricht Treaty (1992) are imposed on the Turkish fiscal policy and it is investigated whether these targets are the indicators for sustainability in the medium term. Uctum and Wickens’ (2000) methodology is followed in assessing the sustainability of the current fiscal policy and the efficiency of the Maastricht Treaty (1992) targets. Moreover, the vector auto regression (VAR) approach of Garcia and Rigobon (2004) is utilized in deriving the econometric model for the debt dynamics of Turkey. The results suggest that domestic debt of Turkey has been unsustainable within 1994-2008. Furthermore, the Maastricht Treaty (1992) fiscal targets are binding for Turkey and gaining more significance in the recent years.