Role of investment shocks in explaining business cycles in Turkey

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2012

Öğrenci: CANAN YÜKSEL

Danışman: EBRU VOYVODA

Özet:

This thesis aims to understand the sources of business cycles observed in Turkish economy. In particular the thesis investigates the role of investment shocks in explaining fluctuations in output. For this purpose a small open economy DSGE model is estimated on Turkish data for 2002-2011 period by Bayesian methods. Variance decomposition analysis shows that permanent technology shock is the key driving force of business cycles in Turkish economy and the role of investment shock is less spelled.