A new energy-economy-environment modeling framework: Insights from decarbonization of the Turkish power Sector towards net-zero Emission targets

KAT B., Şahin Ü., Teimourzadeh S., Tör O., VOYVODA E., Yeldan A.

Energy, cilt.302, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 302
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131760
  • Dergi Adı: Energy
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Applied general equilibrium, Coal phase-out, Electricity market simulation model, Energy storage technologies, Fossil fuel phase-out, Generation expansion planning, Linear programming, Türkiye's power generation sector
  • Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The power sector plays a crucial role towards decarbonization for many economies, especially in line with the net-zero targets to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Technical constraints intrinsic to the sector, penetration of new technologies, investment and operational costs, and its connections with the rest of the economy make the power sector a complex system to analyze. Although there are numerous studies to integrate bottom-up power sector technology models with top-down macroeconomic models, this study is the first attempt to link the three separate and interrelated models within a single framework: an electricity market simulation model, a generation expansion planning model, and an applied general equilibrium model. The proposed framework is implemented to analyze a feasible decarbonization scenario for Türkiye, with a particular focus on the power sector. The results suggest that, given the existing capacity and potential for renewables, Türkiye can achieve a coal-phase out by early 2030s, alongside a trajectory towards a full-fledged fossil fuel phase-out in power generation. The results also indicate that while installed capacity and generation of coal-fired power plants are reduced, real GDP and electricity demand can be maintained and the carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector could be reduced by as much as 50% in 2030 compared to 2018 levels.