Landslide risk assessment and management by decision analytical procedure for Derekoy, Konya, Turkey

Duzgun S. B., Ozdemir A.

NATURAL HAZARDS, vol.39, no.2, pp.245-263, 2006 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 39 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2006
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s11069-006-0026-6
  • Journal Name: NATURAL HAZARDS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.245-263
  • Keywords: landslide, slope movement, risk assessment, plane failure, decision tree
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: No


The Derekoy landslide threatening the town of Derekoy, Konya, Turkey is investigated in order to assess and manage the associated risk. Derekoy town, located 12 km west of Konya city center, which is the second largest city in central Anatolia, has been extending due to the demand for new settlement places in Konya for the last decade. As most of the town is situated on the slopes of Meram river valley, on which the slope movements are observed, the risk of landslide has been increasing due to these new settlements. In this study, the landslide risk in Derekoy is assessed by following the so-called decision analytical procedure. The risk is defined by multiplication of hazard and consequences of the hazard. The hazard, which is the probability of slope failure, is computed by using the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method. The possible consequences of a landslide in Derekoy are analyzed and their costs are assessed relative to each other. A decision tree for choosing among the possible alternatives for reducing the risk is constructed in order to manage the risk.