Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo

Amin M. Z. M., Shaaban A. J., Ercan A., Ishida K., Kavvas M. L., Chen Z. Q., ...Daha Fazla

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, cilt.575, ss.12-22, 2017 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 575
  • Basım Tarihi: 2017
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.009
  • Dergi Adı: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.12-22
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Climate change, Regional climate model, Hydrologic model, Dynamical downscaling, hydrologic processes in watershed scale, WEHY MODEL, HCM
  • Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungunwatersheds of PeninsularMalaysia bymeans of a coupled regional climate and physically- based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope- scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April toMay and fromJuly to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons atMuda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.