Can digital twins help define a safe operating space for the seas? Transforming the regional seas: digital twin demonstrators


Salihoğlu B., Fach Salihoğlu B. A., Arkin S., Yücel M., Tezcan D., Niiranen S., ...More

Advances in Marine Ecosystem Modelling Research (AMEMR) 2024, Plymouth, England, 8 - 11 July 2024, pp.152

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Summary Text
  • City: Plymouth
  • Country: England
  • Page Numbers: pp.152
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

AI supported digital ocean twins can help transform marine ecosystem models into decision support tools that consider direct stakeholder input including management priorities and expert knowledge. Regional seas are especially challenged in terms of adopting management tools that support both resilient ecosystems and well-being of coastal communities.

The Digital Twins of the Black Sea and Marmara Sea are examples in practice. These are first examples of digital twin ocean demonstrators with real-time information from data lakes and smart observation setups, high-resolution, fully coupled sophisticated models of the sea and the watershed supported by artificial intelligence tools and socio-economic models. Such Digital Twins further our understanding of changes in regional sea ecosystems in response to changing climate and environmental stressors and can be used to test alternative blue economy and biodiversity conservation scenarios and support policy and management demands.

The Marmara Sea Digital Twin includes components that help optimize and test different scenarios that will lead the highly polluted, degraded, anoxic Marmara Sea ecosystem to shift above the hypoxic threshold with increased biodiversity and benthic and pelagic fauna. The Black Sea demonstrator includes an ensemble of integrated model simulations, as well as machine learning and cumulative risk assessment tools, to support the assessment of ecosystem state and resilience, and a better understanding of the compound risks on ocean derived ecosystem services. With these demonstrators different socio-economic and blue economy scenarios including sectoral analysis are tested with and for stakeholders through living labs across the basin. Thus, the digital twins will directly contribute towards defining the safe operating space where the ecosystem service dynamics are well understood and support resilient coastal communities.