Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections

Ishida K., Gorguner M., Ercan A., Trinh T., Kavvas M. L.

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, cilt.592, ss.12-24, 2017 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 592
  • Basım Tarihi: 2017
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.086
  • Dergi Adı: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.12-24
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Dynamical downscaling, Northern California, CMIP5 future climate change projections, RCP scenarios, Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), Watershed-scale precipitation, MODEL, TEMPERATURE, INTENSITY, SCENARIOS, EUROPE, CYCLE
  • Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9 km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically down-scaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.