Regional intensity-duration-frequency analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey, by using L-moments and regression analysis


Ghiaei F., Kankal M., ANILAN T., YÜKSEK Ö.

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, cilt.131, ss.245-257, 2018 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 131
  • Basım Tarihi: 2018
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s00704-016-1953-0
  • Dergi Adı: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.245-257

Özet

The analysis of rainfall frequency is an important step in hydrology and water resources engineering. However, a lack of measuring stations, short duration of statistical periods, and unreliable outliers are among the most important problems when designing hydrology projects. In this study, regional rainfall analysis based on L-moments was used to overcome these problems in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) of Turkey. The L-moments technique was applied at all stages of the regional analysis, including determining homogeneous regions, in addition to fitting and estimating parameters from appropriate distribution functions in each homogeneous region. We studied annual maximum rainfall height values of various durations (5 min to 24 h) from seven rain gauge stations located in the EBSB in Turkey, which have gauging periods of 39 to 70 years. Homogeneity of the region was evaluated by using L-moments. The goodness-of-fit criterion for each distribution was defined as the Z(DIST) statistics, depending on various distributions, including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type 3 (PE3), and generalized Pareto (GPA). GLO and GEV determined the best distributions for short (5 to 30 min) and long (1 to 24 h) period data, respectively. Based on the distribution functions, the governing equations were extracted for calculation of intensities of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years return periods (T). Subsequently, the T values for different rainfall intensities were estimated using data quantifying maximum amount of rainfall at different times. Using these T values, duration, altitude, latitude, and longitude values were used as independent variables in a regression model of the data. The determination coefficient (R-2) value indicated that the model yields suitable results for the regional relationship of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF), which is necessary for the design of hydraulic structures in small and medium sized catchments.