Air pollution forecasting in Ankara, Turkey using air pollution index and its relation to assimilative capacity of the atmosphere

genç D., Yesilyurt C., TUNCEL S. G.

ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT, vol.166, pp.11-27, 2010 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 166
  • Publication Date: 2010
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s10661-009-0981-y
  • Page Numbers: pp.11-27
  • Keywords: Urban air pollution, Air pollution index, Multiple linear regression, Forecasting, Assimilative capacity, Ventilation coefficient, PARTICULATE MATTER, SEASONAL-VARIATION, INDUSTRIAL ZONE, SULFUR-DIOXIDE, QUALITY, DISPERSION, WINTER, POLLUTANTS, DEPOSITION, PATTERNS


Spatial and temporal variations in concentrations of CO, NO, NO2, SO2, and PM10, measured between 1999 and 2000, at traffic-impacted and residential stations in Ankara were investigated. Air quality in residential areas was found to be influenced by traffic activities in the city. Pollutant ratios were proven to be reliable tracers to differentiate between different sources. Air pollution index (API) of the whole city was calculated to evaluate the level of air quality in Ankara. Multiple linear regression model was developed for forecasting API in Ankara. The correlation coefficients were found to be 0.79 and 0.63 for different time periods. The assimilative capacity of Ankara atmosphere was calculated in terms of ventilation coefficient (VC). The relation between API and VC was investigated and found that the air quality in Ankara was determined by meteorology rather than emissions.