Exploring relations between solar activity, cosmic rays, clouds and earth climate using machine learning techniques

Belen B., Leloğlu U., DEMİRKÖZ M. B.

Advances in Space Research, cilt.74, sa.4, ss.1883-1899, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 74 Sayı: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.asr.2024.05.058
  • Dergi Adı: Advances in Space Research
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Artic & Antarctic Regions, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, INSPEC, MEDLINE, Metadex, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1883-1899
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Climate, Clouds, Cosmic Rays, Random Forests, Solar Activity
  • Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The Earth's climate is a complex system that can be influenced by various internal and external factors. Previous research has explored the relationship between climate and external forcings such as solar activity and GCR. However, the relations are intricate and intertwined into almost chaotic meteorological measurements. This paper delves deeper into understanding their interactions. GCR flux, Sunspot number (SSN), total solar irradiance (TSI), UV irradiance (UVI), and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) are the predictor variables, while total cloud amount (TCA) and low cloud amount (LCA) are the response variables. The analysis begins with standard statistical techniques and continues with multiple regression models including random forest, which is a machine learning (ML) method that can be used for non-linear regression. Subsequently, Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) is employed to scrutinize the correlation among the predictor parameters. In the ML model, the final 25% of the dataset is held out and tested for validation, so, the predictive power of the algorithm is measured. Both geographical and temporal patterns have been investigated. This study suggests that a non-linear relationship might exist between the parameters, and should be investigated further, particularly in specific regions of the world.