Effect of Seismic Source Model Parameters on the Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessment Results: A Case Study for the North Anatolian Fault Zone


BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA, vol.105, no.5, pp.2808-2822, 2015 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier


The inputs to the probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA) contain large uncertainties regarding the seismic source model parameters; therefore, results may vary significantly due to subjective judgment and interpretation of the limited data. The objective of this study is to show the effect of seismic source models on the hazard results by quantifying the differences in the design ground motions for different hazard levels at different locations around the North Anatolian fault. Analysis showed the variances in the hazard results obtained by different seismic source models are closely correlated with the location of the site and hazard level. Additionally, sensitivity of the hazard results to the uncertainties involved in each source parameter, especially the source zone boundaries, annual slip rate, maximum and minimum magnitudes, fault width, b-value, and scenario weights are analyzed and presented to provide insight on the relative contribution of source or fault parameters to the PSHA results.