Stock mechanics: predicting recession in S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ

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Tuncay C.

CENTRAL EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PHYSICS, vol.4, no.1, pp.58-72, 2006 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 4 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2006
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s11534-005-0006-6
  • Journal Name: CENTRAL EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PHYSICS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.58-72
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Proposed in this paper is an original method assuming potential and kinetic energies for prices and for the conservation of their sum that has been developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with a power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on the S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a forthcoming recession in them. An emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Exchange index ISE-100 is found harboring a potential to continue to rise. (C) Central European Science Journals Warsaw and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. All rights reserved.