Information theoric framework for the earthquake recurrence models: Methodica Firma per Terra Non-Firma

Creative Commons License

Esmer O.

26th International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering, Paris, France, 8 - 13 July 2006, vol.872, pp.556-562 identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Volume: 872
  • Doi Number: 10.1063/1.2423319
  • City: Paris
  • Country: France
  • Page Numbers: pp.556-562
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: No


This paper first evaluates the earthquake prediction method (1999) used by US Geological Survey as the lead example and reviews also the recent models. Secondly, points out the ongoing debate on the predictability of earthquake recurrences and lists the main claims of both sides. The traditional methods and the "frequentist" approach used in determining the earthquake probabilities cannot end the complaints that the earthquakes are unpredictable. It is argued that the prevailing "crisis" in seismic research corresponds to the Pre-Maxent Age of the current situation. Theperiodof Kuhnian "Crisis" should give rise to anew paradigm based on the Information-Theoric framework including the inverse problem, Maxent and Bayesian methods. Paper aims to show that the information-theoric methods shall provide the required "Methodica Firma" for the earthquake prediction models.