Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean


Heidarzadeh M., Pirooz M. D. , Zaker N. H. , YALÇINER A. C.

NATURAL HAZARDS, vol.48, no.2, pp.229-243, 2009 (Peer-Reviewed Journal) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 48 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2009
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s11069-008-9259-x
  • Journal Name: NATURAL HAZARDS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded, Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.229-243
  • Keywords: Tsunami, Indian Ocean, Makran subduction zone (MSZ), Deterministic tsunami hazard assessment, Numerical modeling, ACCRETIONARY WEDGE, EARTHQUAKES, DEFORMATION, IRAN, PAKISTAN, REGIONS, COASTS, RISK

Abstract

We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M (w) 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.