Pedestrian evacuation time calculation against tsunami hazard for southern coasts of Bodrum peninsula

Celikbas B., TÜFEKÇİ ENGİNAR D., Dogan G. G., KOLAT Ç., Santini M., Annunziato A., ...More

Natural Hazards, vol.119, no.1, pp.243-260, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 119 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s11069-023-06034-6
  • Journal Name: Natural Hazards
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, IBZ Online, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Environment Index, Geobase, INSPEC, Metadex, PAIS International, Pollution Abstracts, Veterinary Science Database, DIALNET, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.243-260
  • Keywords: Least-cost distance (LCD) model, Pedestrian evacuation, Pedestrian evacuation analysis tool (PEAT), Tsunami evacuation, Walk time maps
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Historical records with recent events reveal that tsunamis are threatening the western coast of Turkey due to the intensely active seismicity of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The most recent tsunami events in the region (30 October 2020 Izmir-Samos and 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos) restated that the cities located near the Eastern Mediterranean and connected seas should also consider tsunami events in their disaster mitigation plans. Bodrum is one of the most critical coastal districts vulnerable to marine hazards, with popular hotels, numerous coastal facilities, long and famous beaches, cultural, historical and touristic places. Tsunami evacuation planning is required for Bodrum district to mitigate the damage caused by destructive tsunami waves inundating on land. This study calculates the geospatial distribution of pedestrian evacuation time, based on selected credible worst-case scenarios. A widely used anisotropic least-cost distance model is applied via the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool to calculate the required time for a pedestrian to evacuate the region under tsunami threat based on the selected scenarios. The model includes landscape properties that affect the walking pace of pedestrians during an evacuation, such as elevation, slope, land cover, and land use types (beach, road, bushes, water bodies, and barriers). The resultant pedestrian evacuation time maps show that the maximum time needed for a pedestrian is 8, 6, 5, 4, and 3 min for highly populated coastal settlements of Bodrum, which are Central Bodrum, Yahsi, Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays, Bitez, and Gumbet Bays, respectively.