Climate Change Risk Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

YAVUZ C., KENTEL ERDOĞAN E., Aral M. M.

WATER, cilt.12, sa.10, ss.1-18, 2020 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 12 Sayı: 10
  • Basım Tarihi: 2020
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3390/w12102881
  • Dergi Adı: WATER
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Compendex, Environment Index, Geobase, INSPEC, Pollution Abstracts, Veterinary Science Database, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-18
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: natural hazard, climate change, sea level rise, earthquake triggered tsunami, social and economic risk assessment, Monte Carlo analysis, LEVEL RISE, FLOOD RISK, VULNERABILITY, MAGNITUDE, EXPOSURE, LOSSES, MODEL
  • Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Climate change impacts on social and economic assets and activities are expected to be devastating. What is as important as the analysis of climate change triggered events is the analysis of a combination of climate change related events and other natural hazards not related to climate change. Given this observation, the purpose of this study is to present a coastal risk analysis for potential earthquake triggered tsunamis (ETTs) coupled with the sea level rise (SLR) in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. For this purpose, extensive stochastic analysis of ETTs, which are not related to climate change, are conducted considering the effects of climate change related SLR projections for this century. For the combined analysis, economic and social risks are evaluated for two regions in the Eastern Mediterranean Coastline, namely the Fethiye City Center at the Turkish Coastline and the Cairo Agricultural Area near Egypt. It is observed that ignoring SLR will hinder realistic evaluation of ETT risks in the region. Moreover, spatial evaluations of economic and social risks are necessary since topography and proximity to the earthquake zones affect inundation levels due to ETTs in the presence of SLR.