Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice


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Goodwin P., Gonul M. S. , ÖNKAL D.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, vol.29, no.2, pp.354-366, 2013 (Journal Indexed in SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 29 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2013
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.08.001
  • Title of Journal : INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
  • Page Numbers: pp.354-366
  • Keywords: Judgmental forecasting, Advice, Stated trust, Adjusting forecasts, EXPLANATION FACILITIES, USER ACCEPTANCE, ADJUSTMENTS, HEURISTICS, EXPERTS, MODEL, RISK

Abstract

Forecasting support systems (FSSs) have little value if users distrust the information and advice that they offer. Two experiments were used to investigate: (i) factors that influence the levels of users' stated trust in advice provided by an FSS, when this advice is provided in the form of interval forecasts, (ii) the extent to which stated trust is associated with users' modifications of the provided forecasts, and (iii) the consequences of these modifications for the calibration of the interval forecasts. Stated trust was influenced by the levels of noise in time series and whether a trend was present but was unaffected by the presence or absence of point forecasts. It was also higher when the intervals were framed as 'best-case/worst-case' forecasts and when the FSS provided explanations. Absence of trust was associated with a tendency to narrow the provided prediction intervals, which reduced their calibration. (C) 2012 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.