Risk tolerance measure for decision-making in fuzzy analysis: a health risk assessment perspective


Kentel E. , Aral M. M.

STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT, cilt.21, ss.405-417, 2007 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 21 Konu: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2007
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s00477-006-0073-2
  • Dergi Adı: STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.405-417

Özet

In risk assessment studies it is important to determine how uncertain and imprecise knowledge should be included into the simulation and assessment models. Thus, proper evaluation of uncertainties has become a major concern in environmental and health risk assessment studies. Previously, researchers have used probability theory, more commonly Monte Carlo analysis, to incorporate uncertainty analysis in health risk assessment studies. However, in conducting probabilistic health risk assessment, risk analyst often suffers from lack of data or the presence of imperfect or incomplete knowledge about the process modeled and also the process parameters. Fuzzy set theory is a tool that has been used in propagating imperfect and incomplete information in health risk assessment studies. Such analysis result in fuzzy risks which are associated with membership functions. Since possibilistic health risk assessment studies are relatively new, standard procedures for decision-making about the acceptability of the resulting fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp standard set by the regulatory agency are not fully established. In this paper, we are providing a review of several available approaches which may be used in decision-making. These approaches involve defuzzification techniques, the possibility and the necessity measures. In this study, we also propose a new measure, the risk tolerance measure, which can be used in decision making. The risk tolerance measure provides an effective metric for evaluating the acceptability of a fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp compliance criterion. Fuzzy risks with different membership functions are evaluated with respect to a crisp compliance criterion by using the possibility, the necessity, and the risk tolerance measures and the results are discussed comparatively.