Citizens and Peace Mediations in Divided Societies: Identifying Zones of Agreement through a Conjoint Survey Experiment


Loizides N., Psaltis C., Morgan-Jones E., Sudulich L., Popp R., BAYKIZ T.

Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol.66, pp.1619-1649, 2022 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 66
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.1177/00220027221108221
  • Journal Name: Journal of Conflict Resolution
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, IBZ Online, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Periodicals Index Online, ABI/INFORM, American History and Life, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, Communication & Mass Media Index, EBSCO Education Source, EconLit, Education Abstracts, HeinOnline-Law Journal Library, Historical Abstracts, Index Islamicus, PAIS International, Political Science Complete, Psycinfo, Public Administration Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Social services abstracts, Sociological abstracts, Violence & Abuse Abstracts, vLex, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.1619-1649
  • Keywords: integrative (win-win) negotiations, ZOPA, peace agreements, conjoint analysis, power-sharing, federal courts, displacement, CYPRUS, CONSOCIATIONALISM, ATTITUDES, POLITICS
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

© The Author(s) 2022.How can areas of potential agreement be identified and endorsed by citizens in protracted conflicts? In an effort to answer this question, the article introduces a conjoint experiment across the ethnically and territorially split communities of Cyprus and tests a range of hypotheses about the structure of public opinion with respect to a future settlement. We test hypotheses on security and credible commitments, the legacy of past negotiations, as well as transitional justice mechanisms following United Nations plans to mediate the conflict between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we demonstrate that a zone of possible agreement (ZOPA) exists from a public opinion perspective. We specifically explore power-sharing in the context of security, provisions for the internally displaced, federal courts, and territorial readjustments and highlight their relative importance for public opinion interventions across conflict-ridden societies.