Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES, cilt.62, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
Study region: Understanding lake-groundwater interactions is crucial for the sustainable management of fragile ecosystems, such as Burdur Lake, a Ramsar-listed closed-basin lake in the Mediterranean region of T & uuml;rkiye. Study focus: This study investigates the causes and consequences of long-term lake-level decline driven by both climatic and anthropogenic factors. A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was developed and calibrated using MODFLOW, incorporating the lake package under steadystate (1969, 2014) and transient (1969-1971, 2014-2016) conditions based on lake levels, groundwater observations, and a detailed conceptual lake budget. The calibrated model was extended to simulate future scenarios (2019-2064) using CORDEX regional climate projections (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), assessing the effects of increased groundwater abstraction and streamflow regulation through reservoirs. New hydrological insights: Simulation results suggest that climate change alone may lead to a lake-level decline of 5-6 m, while combined with increased groundwater extraction, the decline may reach 7 m. However, restoring natural stream inflows by removing surface water reservoirs could result in a recovery of up to 3 m despite climate stress. The findings highlight the dominant role of surface water regulation in lake shrinkage and demonstrate the value of integrated modeling for guiding water management policies. This study provides a framework for assessing coupled lake-groundwater systems under multiple stressors in semi-arid, closed basin settings.