Demand forecasting for yacht tourism planning in Turkey


KARANCI A. N. , Guler I., ERGİN A. , YALÇINER A. C.

2011 Conference on Coastal Engineering Practice, San Diego, CA, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, 21 - 24 Ağustos 2011, ss.1078-1087 identifier

  • Cilt numarası:
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1061/41190(422)87
  • Basıldığı Şehir: San Diego, CA
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Amerika Birleşik Devletleri
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1078-1087

Özet

Integration of forecasts to the strategic planning is necessary for sustainable and use of the coastal resources. In this study two different quantitative forecasting techniques - Exponential smoothing and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods - were used to estimate the demand for yacht berthing capacity demand till 2030 in Turkey. Forecast results suggested that yacht tourism will continue to intensify increasing the demand on infrastructure. Aiming a dynamic plan which is responsive to both national and international developments in yacht tourism, potential investments were determined by using multi-criteria decision making processes. This study provides a multi dimensioned point of view to planning problem. The paper highlights the need for sustainable and dynamic planning at delicate and high demand areas such as coasts. © 2011 ASCE.