Causal relationship between construction investment policy and economic growth in Turkey

Ozkan F., Ozkan O., Gunduz M.

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, vol.79, no.2, pp.362-370, 2012 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 79 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2012
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.04.007
  • Journal Name: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.362-370
  • Keywords: Economic growth, Construction sector, Engle-Granger cointegration, Error correction, Granger causality, INFRASTRUCTURE, CROWD
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

The construction industry in countries experiencing severe economic crisis has vital importance to get out of stagnation because of its direct relations with 200 different sectors. In this study, the relationship between the construction growth data (infrastructure, building and residential (public), building and residential (private) investment) and gross domestic product (GDP) is examined for Turkey. To this end, Engle-Granger cointegration, error correction model (ECM) and Granger causality tests were applied in order to determine the aforementioned relation. It has been found that the infrastructure and building-residential investments have direct relations with the GDP and have causality effects. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.