Photovoltaic power plant design considering multiple uncertainties and risk


Merzifonluoglu Y., Uzgoren E.

ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH, cilt.262, sa.1, ss.153-184, 2018 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 262 Konu: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2018
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s10479-017-2557-5
  • Dergi Adı: ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.153-184

Özet

The objective of this study was to develop stochastic optimization tools for determining the best strategy of photovoltaic installations in a campus environment with consideration of uncertainties in load, power generation and system performance. In addition to a risk neutral approach, we used Conditional Value-at-Risk to estimate the risk in our problem. The resulting Mixed Integer Programming models were formulated using a scenario-based approach. To minimize the mismatch between supply and demand, hourly solar resource and electricity demand levels were characterized via refined models. A sample-average approximation (SAA) method was proposed to provide high-quality solutions efficiently. The SAA problems were solved using exact and heuristic methods. A complete numerical study was conducted to examine the performance of the proposed solution methods, identify optimal selection strategies and consider the sensitivity of the solution to varying levels of risk.