A GIS-based methodology to assess bus public transit supply-demand gaps


ERGÜL H., DALKIÇ MELEK G., TÜYDEŞ YAMAN H.

Case Studies on Transport Policy, cilt.24, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 24
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101750
  • Dergi Adı: Case Studies on Transport Policy
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, Geobase
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Public transit, Spatial analysis, Supply–demand gaps
  • Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Public transit (PT) is a critical component of sustainable transportation and promoting a modal shift from private vehicles is crucial. However, the accessibility of PT as well as the quality of the service are the major factors for creating this modal shift. Simply having a bus stop can be a misleading indicator of the service quality as it does not carry information on the operational issues. This study addresses this gap by proposing a methodology to assess PT bus service gaps using five factors: the number of bus lines, frequency, service hours, ridership, and surrounding points of interest (POIs). Each factor receives a score (0–3), and these scores contribute to the calculation of supply and demand indexes for each stop. The difference between these indexes defines a “gap index” that reflects the stop’s performance. Furthermore, the system extends beyond individual stops, enabling continuous estimation of PT supply and demand across an area. This allows for the identification of locations with high potential demand but lacking PT service. The visualization of the results in the GIS environment allows easier depiction of PT gaps in an urban region. The proposed approach was applied to evaluate 4113PT bus stops in city of Konya, Türkiye. The findings revealed 1014 stops with low supply scores despite high demand. Additionally, 373 stops had just enough supply to meet demand. The spatial gap analysis further detected areas with insufficient PT service, highlighting locations that could benefit from new bus stops and lines.