Intercomparison of the expected change in the temperature and the precipitation retrieved from CMIP6 and CMIP5 climate projections: A Mediterranean hot spot case, Turkey

Bağçacı S. Ç., Yücel İ., Düzenli E., Yılmaz M. T.

ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, cilt.256, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 256
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105576
  • Dergi Adı: ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Environment Index, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Climate change hotspot, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Global climate model, Turkey climate, NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION, EXTREME PRECIPITATION, WINTER PRECIPITATION, CHANGE IMPACTS, MODEL, SIMULATIONS, VARIABILITY, 21ST-CENTURY, CIRCULATION, PERFORMANCE
  • Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The performances of a large number of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) belonging to the latest release the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in comparison with its predecessor CMIP5 are evaluated for monthly precipitation and temperature over Turkey (i.e. climate change hotspot). The ensemble of best top four models from both CMIP simulations is also used to investigate the future climate change under medium and high emissions for short, medium, and long terms. Results show CMIP6 products outperform CMIP5 in terms of accuracy statistics, particularly for precipitation. Overall, CMIP6 indicate less intermodel variability, implying the climate signal obtained via CMIP6 is improved relative to CMIP5. The CMIP6 reduce the error in precipitation and temperature 11% and 6%, respectively while increasing the correlation 13% for precipitation. Correlation is not changed for temperature. The substantial success of CMIP6 mainly manifests itself in the winter precipitation and autumn temperature. A slightly warmer (up to 0.35 ?C) climate from the CMIP6 is projected while precipitation change in mean precipitation decline is about 2.5% smaller for CMIP6. However, precipitation changes in maximum decline and increase are more noticeable for CMIP6, addressing the better resolving for future climate variability. The summer warming (up to 6.5 ?C) and drying (up to -40%) towards autumn spread across the country. The increased precipitation projection in the winter and spring over the east of the Black Sea Region and north-east of Anatolia may further increase the flood risks in the area.