Changes in precipitation climatology for the Eastern Mediterranean using CORDEX RCMs, NHRCM and MRI-AGCM


Mesta B., Sasaki H., Nakaegawa T., KENTEL ERDOĞAN E.

Atmospheric Research, vol.272, 2022 (Journal Indexed in SCI Expanded) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 272
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106140
  • Title of Journal : Atmospheric Research
  • Keywords: Mediterranean, MRI-AGCM, NHRCM, Precipitation, Regional Climate Model

Abstract

© 2022Mediterranean Basin is expected to be one of the regions most severely impacted by global climate change. However, the complex interactions of driving forces of climate in the region create a challenge for climate projections for the future. Findings from climate change studies support the inter-model and inter-regional variability of projections on climate change impacts. On the other hand, the studies on the evaluation of the simulation skills of high-resolution climate models for the region particularly for Turkey are still numbered. Hence, this study brings a 14-member ensemble together for the analysis of the performance efficiencies of 12 CORDEX RCMs and two high-resolution climate models, NHRCM and MRI-AGCM, of the Japanese Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The skill of climate models to reproduce the spatial variability of baseline precipitation climatology is assessed through a benchmark with reference data from 59 ground-based meteorological stations across the study area. Additionally, potential changes in precipitation climatology in the short (2020−2030), medium (2031–2050), and long-term (2051–2100) future are studied with a 14-member ensemble analysis. Projections of 14 models show significant disagreement, especially in the short-term, but most models project a general decrease in the precipitation in the study area in medium- and long-term under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For RCP8.5 scenario, performance based weighted average of five climate models project a decrease in precipitation across the whole study area both for medium- and long-term future.