Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
SUSTAINABILITY, cilt.15, ss.1-38, 2023 (SCI-Expanded)
In this study, the latest release of all available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models with two future scenarios of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, over the period 2015-2100 are utilized in diagnosing climate extremes in Turkiye. Coarse-resolution climate models were downscaled to a 0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees (similar to 9 km) spatial resolution using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5-Land (ERA5-Land) dataset based on three types of quantile mapping: quantile mapping, detrended quantile mapping, and quantile delta mapping. The temporal variations of the 12 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and 12 extreme temperature indices (ETIs) from 2015 to 2100 consistently suggest drier conditions, in addition to more frequent and severe precipitation extremes and warming temperature extremes in Turkiye, under the two future scenarios. The SSP5-8.5 scenario indicates more severe water stress than the SSP2-4.5 scenario; the total precipitation decreases up to 20% for Aegean and Mediterranean regions of Turkiye. Precipitation extremes indicate a decrease in the frequency of heavy rains but an increase in very heavy rains and also an increasing amount of the total precipitation from very heavy rain days. Temperature extremes such as the coldest, warmest, and mean daily maximum temperature are expected to increase across all regions of Turkiye, indicating warming conditions by up to 7.5 degrees C by the end of the century. Additionally, the coldest daily maximums also exhibit higher variability to climate change in the subregions Aegean, Southeastern Anatolia, Marmara, and Mediterranean regions of Turkiye while the mean daily maximum temperature showed greater sensitivity in the Black Sea, Central Anatolia, and Eastern Anatolia regions.