A new fully probabilistic methodology and a software for assessing uncertainties and managing risks in shale gas projects at any maturity stage

Tugan M. F., SINAYUÇ Ç.

JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, vol.168, pp.107-118, 2018 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 168
  • Publication Date: 2018
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.petrol.2018.05.001
  • Journal Name: JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.107-118
  • Keywords: Shale gas, Unconventional reserves, Reservoir management
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Shale oil and shale gas projects generally have marginal economics, hence should be carefully analyzed from the economic standpoint. Generating an economically recoverable resource (ERR) probability function that shows the full uncertainty range is highly important for such an economic analysis. Furthermore, the net present value (NPV) of the project together with the uncertainties inherent in it should be revealed so that the primary decision of entering a shale oil or shale gas project will be determined. As progressing through the project phases, judicious go/no-go decisions should be given at several decision gates.