Determination of zonal power demand S-curves with GA based on top-to-bottom and end-use approaches


TURSUN F., CEBECI M. E. , TOR O. B. , SAHIN A., TASKIN H. G. , GÜVEN A. N.

4th International Istanbul Smart Grid Congress and Fair (ICSG), İstanbul, Turkey, 20 - 21 April 2016, pp.33-37 identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Doi Number: 10.1109/sgcf.2016.7492423
  • City: İstanbul
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.33-37

Abstract

Long-term zonal demand forecasting is a complex problem for electric distribution systems, particularly when the planner has limited data, and therefore, needs smart approaches along with proper estimations. This paper presents a novel methodology to determine saturation curves (S-curves) of demand zones which are classified based on municipality development plans. The methodology which is based on combination of top-to-bottom and bottom-to-top (also called end-use) approaches, is applied to the network of Akdeniz Distribution Company (DISCO) of Turkey. Genetic algorithm (GA) technique is utilized to determine zonal S-curves by utilizing top-to-bottom projections and expected saturation demands of the zones. Sensitivity analysis shows that the proposed method gives reliable results as long as top-to-bottom results represent the total demand of the zones satisfactorily and the planner defines the constraints reasonably.