Predicting the Occurrence of Construction Disputes Using Machine Learning Techniques

AYHAN M., DİKMEN TOKER İ., BİRGÖNÜL M. T.

Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, cilt.147, sa.4, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 147 Sayı: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0002027
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, ICONDA Bibliographic, INSPEC, Metadex, Public Affairs Index, DIALNET, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Dispute prediction, Machine learning (ML), Data classification, Construction disputes, Dispute management, Project management, ARTIFICIAL-INTELLIGENCE, CLASSIFICATION, IDENTIFICATION, LITIGATION, MODEL
  • Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.The construction industry is overwhelmed by an increasing number and severity of disputes. The primary objective of this research is to predict the occurrence of disputes by utilizing machine learning (ML) techniques on empirical data. For this reason, variables affecting dispute occurrence were identified from the literature, and a conceptual model was developed to depict the common factors. Based on the conceptual model, a questionnaire was designed to collect empirical data from experts. Chi-square tests were conducted to reveal the associations between input variables and dispute occurrence. Alternative classification techniques were tested, and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers achieved the best average accuracy (90.46%). Ensemble classifiers combining the tested classification techniques were developed for enhanced prediction performance. Experimental results showed that the best ensemble classifier, obtained from the majority voting technique, can achieve 91.11% average accuracy. Based on Chi-square tests, the most influential factors on dispute occurrence were found as variations and unexpected events in projects. Other important predictors were all related to the skills of the parties involved. This study contributes to the construction dispute domain in three ways: (1) by proposing a conceptual model that combined the diverse efforts in the literature for identifying variables affecting dispute occurrence; (2) by highlighting the influential factors, such as response rate and communication skills, as indicators for potential disputes; and (3) by providing an empirical ML-based model with enhanced prediction capabilities that can function as an early-warning mechanism for decision-makers.