CONTEXT AND PERSPECTIVE ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE

POLITICAL ECONOMY VS ECONOMICS in a turbulent multipolar world, Athens, Yunanistan, 2 - 04 Ağustos 2024, ss.203-216, (Tam Metin Bildiri)

The ongoing war in Ukraine has been the subject of numerous studies. Contradictory

interpretations have emerged regarding the causes of the war, the successes and defeats of the

warring parties, and the positions of the contenders. There has also been an increase in publications

on the war in relation to the international order. This paper aims to provide a coherent historical

context to help readers understand the current situation. It demonstrates that the military conflict

is a consequence of failed diplomatic negotiations between the governments of the United States,

the EU, and Russia in December 2021. The background to these negotiations dates back to 1954

and 1990, when the Soviet Union was not accommodated in European security and bold but

unwritten promises resulted in disputes that have now come to light. The war in Ukraine began

when negotiations between the Russian Federation, the USA and NATO broke down in December

2021. This paper explores the perspectives of all parties involved. It argues that this war, which

should never have happened, could have been avoided through diplomacy; however, the United

States and major European powers disregarded this option. It suggests that major actors, whether

directly or indirectly involved in the conflict, miscalculated because the conflict unfolded differently

to how belligerents and non-belligerents expected. This implies that the international order may

change regardless of how the war ends. Overall, I emphasise that the emerging international order

is polycentric in nature, reflecting the negotiation and struggle processes within capitalism.