Sensitivity of seismic hazard results to alternative seismic source and magnitude-recurrence models: a case study for Jordan

Yilmaz N., YÜCEMEN M. S.

GEODINAMICA ACTA, vol.27, pp.189-202, 2015 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 27
  • Publication Date: 2015
  • Doi Number: 10.1080/09853111.2014.957506
  • Journal Name: GEODINAMICA ACTA
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.189-202
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Influence of different models and assumptions with respect to seismic source modelling and magnitude distribution on seismic hazard results is examined, taking Jordan as a case study. Four alternative models, which are based on different combinations of seismic source models and magnitude-recurrence relationships, are considered. Seismic hazard curves obtained at four different sites in Jordan according to these four models are compared. In order to display the magnitude of spatial variation of peak ground acceleration (PGA) values obtained from these models, difference maps for return periods of 475 and 2475years are constructed. Logic tree method is applied to aggregate the results calculated based on different models and assumptions. Then, best estimate seismic hazard maps for PGA and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0s corresponding to return periods of 475 and 2475years are plotted.